What The Global Market Forecast Means for Traffic Growth and Aircraft Demand

The latest Growth Market Forecast (GMF) has been released by Airbus, with figures for air traffic growth, aircraft demand, air freight development and demand for cargo aircraft. The report provides valuable guidance for airlines, airports, suppliers, investors and others- and has predicted that recent demand for air traffic is set to continue to grow, bringing it more in line with pre-crisis levels.

The report outlines the support that aviation connections bring to commerce, business, governments and education. It also highlights the critical services air cargo delivers- 35% of world trade by value comes directly from air cargo, while the demand from those wanting to connect with families and friends also continues to rise.

The GMF 2022-2041 gathers its findings using a collection of fuel costs and macro-economic expectations, reflecting mainly the International Energy Agency STEPS (Stated Policies Scenario), including Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) directives and reported CO2 prices. It also takes into account the measures already in place to decarbonise the sector, and how these and impending actions impact the decarbonisation of the industry.

The predictions are that passenger traffic demand will grow yearly by 3.6% over the next two decades, with requirements for 39.490 new passenger and freighter aircraft, of which 31.620 will be Single Aisle and 7.8760 Widebody. This will see production of a further 2,440 aircraft over the coming 20 years, with almost 900 being newly built. Although a lower growth than we’ve seen previously, this takes into account the higher energy costs and assumed affects from predicted price elasticity of demand.

Currently, just 20% of in service aircraft meet fuel efficiency guidelines. Replacing the older models is a fast and effective way to decarbonise, bringing the sector closer inline with government targets; the GMF predicts demand of 470 aircraft built with the latest fuel efficiency technology, similar to demands made in 2021- and these demands look set to increase even more in the future too.

Airbus also report that all aircraft in production currently are certified for up to 50% SAF, and the aim is to increase this to 100% in 10 years; these aircraft products are capable of delivering at least 20% fewer emissions.